Forthcoming 6G mobile networks are already being attributed as offering the key to productivity and innovation across all industries, and even though its research suggests that 6G could add $1.24tn to the global economy in 2040, mobile industry trade body the GSMA is warning that such riches will only be possible if operators are given sufficient mobile spectrum by regulators.
Indeed, the Vision 2040: The economic benefits of 6G report warned that without sufficient spectrum, as much as $520bn, or 42% of that value, could be at risk.
At its heart, the report set out to provide an economic analysis of the potential impact of next-generation mobile technology across industries and regions. It predicted that 6G is set to generate significant economic value beyond what mobile networks would deliver if 5G remained the most advanced technology.
It stressed how, unlike previous generations of mobile technology, 6G is expected to be AI-native, enabling networks not only to carry data, but also to sense their environment, support intelligent decision-making and integrate terrestrial and satellite connectivity.
The key drivers cited for this uptick were ubiquitous connectivity integrated sensing, industrial automation, immersive digital services and, not surprisingly, advances in AI.
However, the report emphasised how realising these benefits will depend on governments making sufficient spectrum available in time to support 6G deployment. And with the international spectrum decisions approaching at the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 (WRC-27), the GSMA is urging policymakers to act now to avoid constraining future economic growth.
“6G represents a $1.24tn opportunity for the global economy,” said GSMA chief regulatory officer John Giusti. “The next generation of mobile technology will help power AI, transform industries and unlock new levels of productivity across the economy. But these benefits are not guaranteed. More than $500bn of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today to fully realise the economic potential of 6G in the decades ahead.”
Productivity and innovation
Looking at where 6G could drive productivity and innovation in particular, the report identified manufacturing and financial services as the two largest beneficiaries of 6G, accounting for 20% and 19% respectively of its additional economic contribution in 2040. Construction was expected to account for a further 13%, while information and communications technology were seen as contributing 12%.
In addition, the report pinpointed five key areas through which 6G will generate additional economic value: connectivity for future AI systems; industrial automation and robotics; enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access; integrated sensing and communication; and non-terrestrial networks that extend connectivity into underserved areas.
The GSMA believes that taken together, these capabilities will enable businesses to improve productivity, develop new products and services, and expand digital innovation into sectors and locations that today’s networks cannot fully support.
It says these benefits will be felt globally. The report calculates that Greater China is expected to have $390bn of additional economic value by 2040, and North America is forecast to gain $290bn, followed by Europe at $225bn. The scale of economic gains will depend on the pace of 6G adoption, national infrastructure and the ability of businesses to integrate new technologies.
Looking deeper into the spectrum issue, the report expects mid-band spectrum to be responsible for 70% of 6G’s economic contribution by 2040, reflecting its importance in delivering the capacity and performance required for advanced digital services. Low-band spectrum is set to contribute approximately 25%, providing essential coverage across rural areas, inside buildings and in locations where higher frequencies cannot reach effectively.
However, these amounts are totally dependent on sufficient spectrum access to these ranges, and any losses would come on top of any wider economic impact on existing mobile networks, which share the same spectrum resources.
In a call to action, the report calls on governments and regulators to take three priority actions to secure the full economic benefits of 6G. First of all, it called on governments to make at least 2GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, with further capacity subsequently released to meet growing 6G demand. This should include upper 6GHz spectrum, supported by additional capacity in the upper 3.5GHz, 4.5GHz and 7GHz bands.
In addition, they should make the 600MHz band available for 6G, strengthening rural and indoor coverage and supporting the widespread deployment of connected devices and services, with 500MHz considered where appropriate.
Finally, the GSMA says governments need to establish clear, timely national spectrum roadmaps, giving mobile operators the certainty needed to plan investment and deploy next-generation networks ahead of demand.
“Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth,” said Giusti. “With 6G on the horizon, governments have an opportunity to ensure their economies can benefit from the next wave of digital innovation. Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen.”
